Forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration are predicting between 14 and 19 named tropical storms and major hurricanes for the 2017 season, which began June 1 and continues through November.
The above-normal season has the potential to be "extremely active, and could be the most active since 2010," according to a release from the agency.
"We're now entering the peak of the season when the bulk of the storms usually form," said Dr. Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center. "The wind and air patterns in the area of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean where many storms develop are very conducive to an above-normal season. This is in part because the chance of an El Nino forming, which tends to prevent storms from strengthening, has dropped significantly from May.
Bell said that there is a 60-percent chance of an above-normal season, compared to the May prediction from forecasters of a 45 percent chance. Forecasters also predicted between 11 and 17 named storms in May, along with two to four major hurricanes. Bell said they are now calling for up to five major hurricanes.
"A prediction for five to nine hurricanes remains unchanged from the initial May outlook," he said.
Bell noted other factors that point to an above-normal season include warmer waters across the tropical Atlantic than models previously predicted and higher predicted activity from available models.
In just the first nine weeks of this season there have been six named storms, which is half the number of storms during an average six-month season and double the number of storms that would typically form by early August. An average Atlantic hurricane season produces 12 named storms, of which six become hurricanes, including three major hurricanes.
“(This) updated outlook underscores the need for everyone to know their true vulnerabilities to storms and storm surge,” said FEMA Administrator Brock Long. “As we enter the height of hurricane season, it’s important for everyone to know who issues evacuation orders in their community, heed the warnings, update their insurance and have a preparedness plan.”
The updated outlook is based on the current and evolving atmospheric and oceanic conditions; the most recent model predictions; and pre- and early-season storm activity. The numbers announced Wednesday include the season activity to-date. The Atlantic basin has seen six named storms (Arlene in April; Bret and Cindy in June; Don and Emily in July; and Franklin in August).
Two of these storms, Cindy and Emily, struck the United States. Cindy made landfall on June 22 at the Louisiana-Texas border and caused heavy rain, inland flooding and multiple tornado outbreaks. Emily made landfall on July 31 in Anna Maria Island, Florida. Franklin is predicted to make landfall in Mexico overnight as a hurricane.
