South Carolina could see a mix of rain and snow Sunday as a storm system moves across the region, though forecasters say uncertainty remains about how much cold air will be in place and where the heaviest precipitation may fall.
Frank Strait, severe weather liaison with the S.C. State Climate Office, said fresh cold air is expected to move into the state Saturday night, followed by a storm system arriving early Sunday.
“There’s a chance it’s cold enough for snow, at least at the end of the precipitation or in the northwestern part of the area that sees precipitation,” Strait said.
As of late Thursday evening, computer model guidance was trending toward a mostly rain event, though Strait cautioned that the forecast remains a close call and could still change.
“We’re not out of the woods yet,” he said, noting that model guidance can shift even within a couple of days of an event.
Friday is expected to be less harsh than Thursday despite a bitterly cold morning, with winds diminishing through the day. Another cold front is forecast to move through late Friday night into Saturday morning, bringing light rain to the Upstate. Strait said it may be cold enough for snow north of Highway 11, though any accumulation would likely be limited and confined to higher elevations.
Behind that front, reinforcing cold air is expected to move into the region for Sunday as the boundary stalls near the coast late Saturday night. A storm system is forecast to track along the front from the Gulf Coast before moving along the South Carolina coast into Sunday.
Several uncertainties remain, Strait said. The storm’s exact track could shift farther inland or farther offshore, which would affect where the heaviest precipitation falls. The storm’s intensity is also uncertain, as is how effectively cold air will penetrate South Carolina.
“Even if it snows, most of the storm would occur during the daytime, which makes it harder for snow to stick,” Strait said.
Late Thursday night computer model runs showed more moisture but less cold air, resulting in little snowfall across much of the state. That trend, Strait said, favors rain over snow, though additional model data was expected Friday.
Forecast guidance continues to show a wide range of possibilities, from little or no snow to a more significant snow event in parts of the state. Strait said meteorologists analyze data from multiple global models to narrow the forecast as the event draws closer.
“The picture usually steadily improves once we’re within 72 hours of the event, as we are now,” he said.
While residents are encouraged to stay informed, Strait said preparation does not mean panic buying. He urged residents to review the South Carolina Emergency Management Division’s winter weather guidance and take steps appropriate for their situation.
If snow does occur, lingering cold air behind the system could slow melting and keep conditions cold for several days, forecasters said.
