The potential for significant snowfall across South Carolina is diminishing, though parts of the state could still see a rain-to-snow mix Sunday as a winter storm system moves through, according to the S.C. State Climate Office.
Frank Strait, severe weather liaison with the state climate office, said most areas are now expected to see limited accumulation, if any, as temperatures and ground conditions remain marginal.
“It looks like much of the state sees a rain-to-snow event on Sunday, but not much will accumulate,” Strait said in an update issued Friday.
A cold front stretching from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan to South Texas is expected to move through South Carolina and become stationary along the coast. The front is forecast to bring light rain to much of the Upstate on Saturday morning. Snow or sleet may fall in higher elevations north of Highway 11, though little or no accumulation is expected.
Fresh cold air is forecast to move into the state behind the front Saturday night into Sunday, setting the stage for a storm system expected to track near the Gulf Coast and then along the Carolina coast.
While computer models have come into better agreement on the storm’s general evolution, Strait said several uncertainties remain. A slight shift in the storm’s track could change where the heaviest precipitation falls, and recent model runs have trended warmer than earlier forecasts.
“The models don’t look as cold as they did before, which limits how much precipitation will fall as snow,” Strait said. “If they trend much warmer, we’ll see little or no snow anywhere in the state.”
Some model scenarios show 2 to 4 inches of snow falling in parts of South Carolina, but Strait said warm ground, marginal air temperatures near the surface and daytime snowfall would make accumulation difficult.
“It will be a struggle to get even an inch to accumulate where the heaviest snow falls,” he said.
Forecast models currently suggest two primary scenarios. One favors a rain-to-snow transition along the Coastal Plain, including the Lowcountry, while another shows a narrow band of accumulating snow near the Interstate 20 corridor, with coastal areas remaining too warm for snow.
In both scenarios, expected accumulations would likely remain under an inch due to melting. A farther northwest track of the storm could lead to greater accumulation by shifting snowfall into colder air, though confidence in that outcome remains low.
Light snow or flurries are also possible northwest of the main band of precipitation, with only spotty coatings possible.
Where snow does accumulate, Strait said a cold Sunday night could lead to a risk of black ice on roads into Monday morning. High temperatures near 50 degrees statewide Monday afternoon should melt any remaining snow.
Because of lingering uncertainty, Strait said forecasts may change and residents should continue to monitor updates. Another update is expected Saturday.
