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A developing tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico is not currently expected to directly strike South Carolina, but an influx of tropical moisture could bring heavy rain and isolated flooding to the state this weekend.
The National Hurricane Center gave an area of low pressure in the southwestern Gulf a 90% chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next two days as of Tuesday morning, according to Frank Strait, severe weather liaison for the S.C. State Climate Office.
Thunderstorms have become concentrated around the low-pressure area southeast of the mouth of the Rio Grande, a sign the system is becoming better organized. If it strengthens into a named tropical storm, it would be called Isaias.
Computer models generally show the developing system initially drifting east before turning north toward the central Gulf Coast. An eastward turn is possible after landfall, but current projections favor the system passing west of South Carolina.
That does not mean the state will escape its effects.
A stationary front that contributed to heavy rainfall in parts of South Carolina over the weekend remains between the state and the developing Gulf system. The front is expected to move north through South Carolina this weekend as tropical moisture surges into the region.
That combination could produce periods of heavy rain across some or all of the state, with isolated flooding possible. Saturday night into Sunday currently appears to be the period of greatest concern, Strait said.
The Weather Prediction Center's excessive rainfall outlook also highlights a potential flooding risk in South Carolina Saturday and Saturday night.
There remains considerable uncertainty because the Gulf system had not yet developed into a tropical cyclone Tuesday.
A track farther east than currently projected could increase the impacts in South Carolina. Under that scenario, the state could experience stronger winds Sunday along with a greater threat of heavy rainfall, isolated tornadoes and coastal flooding near times of high tide.
Strait said the odds of a substantially farther-east track currently appear low, but the possibility cannot yet be ruled out.
Residents are encouraged to continue monitoring forecasts over the next several days and make sure hurricane and severe weather preparations are in place as forecasters get a clearer picture of the developing system's strength and eventual path.
